Archive | April 2015

Crazy Day!!

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 101.25), around 9/32 above volatile morning levels, and near the high for the day. Favorable repricing was seen. It looked like it was going to be a bad day for MBS markets with a decline to a low of -11/32 early in the session. MBS recovered all their losses, however, partly due to a decline in stocks. Investors are attempting to determine the appropriate level of global bond yields for the expected pace of economic growth and central bank policy. The Dow is down 200 points. Tomorrow, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10:00 et.

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates rose in the week through April 30, with 30-yrs hitting 3.68%, from 3.65% the prior week.

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Good economic news = BAD NEWS for Interest Rates

MBS are down -8/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 101.16), around 3/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Favorable repricing took place yesterday. Early investors may have priced at much higher levels.

The selling pressure has continued for MBS this morning, mostly due to stronger than expected economic data in the US and Europe. Weekly Jobless Claims declined sharply to 262K, well below the consensus of 290K, and the lowest level in 15 years. Chicago PMI manufacturing rose to 52.3, above the consensus of 50.0. Inflation remained low as the March Core PCE price index rose 0.1%, slightly lower than expected, and it was just 1.3% higher than a year ago. Personal Income came in a little lower than expected. The major data out of Europe exceeded expectations. The Dow is down 25 points. No more economic data will be released today.

Market update 4/28/2015

MBS are down -6/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.04), around 8/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher levels.

Increased optimism that Greek and eurozone officials will reach an agreement has hurt MBS this morning, as investors shift back to riskier bonds around the world. The February Case-Shiller 20-city home price index was 5.0% higher than one year ago. The Dow is down 10 points. Consumer Confidence will be released at 10:00 et. The results from the 5-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

TGIF 4/24/2015

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.07), around 2/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

MBS moved higher this morning following the release of the March Durable Orders report. The headline figure looked great with an increase of 4.0% from February, far above the consensus of just 0.5%. The strong reading was due to volatile aircraft orders, however. March Durable Orders ex-Transportation declined 0.2%, well below the consensus for an increase of 0.3%, and the February figures were revised much lower. This data lowered the expectations for first quarter GDP growth. The Dow is down 25 points. No more economic data will be released today.

4/23/2015 Market OPEN

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.05), around 5/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Unfavorable repricing took place yesterday.

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 295K, above the consensus of 285K. The Dow is down 50 points. New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et.

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4/20/2015 Market Open

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.17), around 3/32 higher than Friday at this time.

With little news, it has been a quiet morning. The Dow is up 200 points. No economic data will be released today.

Mortgage Consultants!! whats going on today?

MBS are up +2/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.18), around 4/32 above morning levels, and near the high for the day. Some favorable repricing was seen. Higher than expected core CPI inflation data hurt MBS this morning. A decline in stocks later lifted MBS. The Dow is down 280 points. For the week, MBS rose about 15/32.

Next week will be a very light one for economic reports. Existing Home Sales will be released on Wednesday, and New Home Sales will come out on Thursday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Friday. Investors also will be watching for signs of progress between Greek and eurozone officials on reform measures for Greece. Experts are divided about whether Greece will reach an agreement or will ultimately exit the European Union.

TGIF 4/17/2015

MBS are down -2/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.14), around 3/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at a range of levels.

It has been a volatile morning. March CPI rose 0.2% from February, below the consensus of 0.3%, and it was unchanged from one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, above the consensus for an increase of 0.1%. Core CPI was 1.8% higher than one year ago, up from 1.7% last month. Based on the timing, it appears that investors did not like the increase in the year over year core rate and pushed MBS lower. The Dow is down 200 points. Leading Indicators and Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10:00 et.

4/16/2015 Market Open

MBS are down -1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.17), around 1/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

Weaker than expected housing data had little impact on MBS this morning. March Housing Starts rose 2% to an annual rate of 926K units, far below the consensus of 1040K. Building Permits also came in well below expectations. The weak data seen last month was discounted due to bad weather in February, but it’s more difficult to blame the weather for the March results. Still, this data is often volatile month to month. Separately, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 294K, above the consensus of 280K. The Dow is down 50 points. Philly Fed will be released at 10:00 et.