Archive | October 2015

Market Update 10/26/2015

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 101.18), around 1/32 higher than Friday at this time.

MBS have moved a little higher this morning ahead of today’s housing data. The Dow is down 25 points. New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et.

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Market Update 10/20/2015

MBS prices are down 7/32 (FNMA 30 yr 3.0 at 101.13), at the low for the day, 7/32 below this time yesterday.   Housing Starts exceeded expectations (see more below).  There are no more events on the calendar today.

Housing Starts exceeded expectations.  On an annualized basis September starts came in at 1.2 million units.  Consensus called for 1.15 million units.  August starts were revised a little higher as well.  Most of the increase in September starts was in multifamily units however.  Building permits fell a little short of expectations.  Single-family permits were essentially unchanged

Market Update 10/19/2015

MBS prices are up 1/32 (FNMA 30 yr 3.0 at 101.19), a little lower than at this time on Friday.  It has been a quiet morning.

The National Association of Home Builders monthly survey of builder expectations will be released at 10:00 et.  This is the first of several housing market indicators to be released this week.

MARKET UPDATE!!!!! 10/14/2015

MBS are up +9/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.18), around 4/32 above morning levels, and near the high for the day. Favorable repricing was seen. Weaker than expected Retail Sales and PPI inflation data helped MBS today. The Fed’s Beige Book reported that economic growth in recent weeks was “modest” and that wage gains were “mostly subdued.” This also helped MBS. The Dow is down 150 points. Tomorrow, CPI, Empire State, and Philly Fed will be released.

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MArket Update 10/14/2015

MBS are up +5/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.14), around 7/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

MBS prices jumped this morning after another major economic report came in well below expectations. September Retail Sales rose 0.1% from August, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Excluding autos, Retail Sales fell 0.3%, below the consensus for a decrease of just 0.1%. In addition, the August results were revised downward. The Dow is up 10 points. The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2:00 et.

September PPI fell 0.5% from August, below the consensus for a decline of just 0.2%, and it was 1.1% lower than a year ago. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, decreased 0.3%, below the consensus for an increase of 0.1%. Core PPI was 0.8% higher than a year ago.

Market Update 10/13/2015

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.07), around 3/32 lower than Friday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher levels.

It has been a quiet morning. The Dow is down 10 points. No economic data will be released today.

The monthly rollover took place overnight for FNMA and FHLMC 30-yr securities. The current coupon switched from the October to the November contract. If you are tracking daily MBS price movements, November MBS prices reflected a drop of about -7/32 from October. This change is priced in over the course of the month, so the impact on mortgage rates on the day of the rollover is generally no greater than on any other day of the month.

Market Update 10/8/2015

MBS are down -1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.15), around 1/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

It has been a quiet morning. Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 263K, a little below the consensus of 270K. The Dow is down 10 points. No more economic data will be released today. The results from the 30-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et. The Minutes from the September 17 Fed meeting will come out at 2:00 et. These detailed Minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and have the potential to significantly move markets.

Market Update 10/7/2015

MBS are down -4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.14), around 1/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Some favorable repricing took place yesterday.

A rally in stocks has been negative for MBS this morning. The Dow is up 150 points. No economic data will be released today. The results from the 10-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

TGIF Market Update 10/02/2015

MBS are up +13/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.26), around 10/32 higher than yesterday at this time, and at the best levels since April.

A disappointing Employment report has lifted MBS and hurt stocks this morning. Against a consensus forecast of 205K, the economy added just 142K jobs in September. Downward revisions to prior months subtracted another 59K. The economy has added an average of 167K jobs over the last three months. This level is consistent with an improving labor market, but it is well below the average monthly job gains of 260K seen last year. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 5.1%, as expected. Wage gains also missed the mark as Average Hourly Earnings fell short of expectations, posting a slight decline from August. They were 2.2% higher than a year ago. The Dow is down 200 points. Factory Orders will be released at 10:00 et.

Market Update 10/1/2015

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 104.16), around 10/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Favorable repricing took place yesterday. Early investors may have priced at lower levels.

With little news, the recent favorable trend in MBS prices has continued this morning. Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 277K, close to the consensus of 275K. The Dow is down 25 points. ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released at10:00 et. The important Employment report will come out tomorrow.