FED NEWS TODAY 3/16/2016
MBS are down -4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 101.07), around 14/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Unfavorable repricing took place yesterday.
Stronger than expected CPI inflation data (see below) has hurt MBS this morning ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon. The Dow is down 10 points. No more economic data will be released today. The Fed announcement will come out around 2:00 et, and Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference will begin around 2:30 et. No change in the federal funds rate is expected. In the past, comments from the Fed often have caused a reaction in MBS prices.
February CPI decreased 0.2% from January, above the consensus for an decline of 0.3%. CPI was 1.0% higher than a year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% from January, above the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was 2.3% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of 2.2% last month, and the highest level since May 2012. Separately, February industrial production fell 0.5% from January, weaker than the consensus for a decline of just 0.2%. February housing starts rose 5% from January to an annual rate of 1178K, above the consensus of 1150K, and the highest level since September. Starts on single-family homes rose to the highest level since November 2007. Building permits fell short of expectations.