Archive | June 2016

Whats going on with Rates?

I though I would address this issue because I have clients calling looking for better rates due to the events last Friday.

The media is making it sound like interest rates are at their best levels in over 3 years and that is NOT actually what is happening.  What truly happened Friday is the best gains in bond prices in a SINGLE DAY int he past 3 years.  However, the facts are that we did NOT hit a 3 year LOW in rates.  If you follow my Facebook, twitter and Blogs you are more informed than the average home owner, Realtor or even the average loan office.  But for those that don’t follow my posts here is a link to my MBS account that I post at the end of each day giving you news for the day as it happens.  You will see by the chart YES last Friday was a good day but it didn’t bring rates to another historic bottom.

PLEASE follow me so you can be the best informed person that your coworkers and peers know and more credibility than your competition.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs/

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Market Update 6/21/2016

MBS are up +2/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.26), around 1/32 lower than yesterday at this time.

It has been a quiet morning ahead of testimony from Fed Chair Yellen. The Dow is up 10 points. No economic data will be released today. Yellen will be testifying before Congress at 10:00 et for the first day of semiannual testimony. The results from the 5-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

Market Update 6/20/2016

MBS are down -6/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.26), around 8/32 lower than Friday at this time. Unfavorable repricing was seen Friday.

This morning, investors have shifted to riskier assets after the latest polls showed greater support for the UK to remain in the EU in Thursday’s vote. Global stock markets have moved higher and bond prices have declined. The Dow is up 225 points. No economic data will be released today. The results from the 2-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

Market Update 6/16/16

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.07), around 8/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Some favorable repricing was seen yesterday.

There were no big surprises in today’s early economic data, but MBS have moved higher. The Dow is down 125 points. NAHB Housing will be released at 10:00 et.

May CPI increased 0.2% from April, below the consensus for an increase of 0.3%. CPI was 1.0% higher than a year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% from April, matching the consensus. Core CPI was 2.2% higher than a year ago, up from 2.1% last month. Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 277K, above the consensus of 270K. The Philly Fed regional manufacturing index rose to 4.7, above the consensus of 1.0.

FED ALERT 6/15/2016

MBS are up +5/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.03), around 4/32 above morning levels, and near the high for the day. Some favorable repricing was seen. MBS moved higher following the release of the Fed statement (see below). The Dow is down 30 points. Tomorrow, CPI, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and NAHB Housing will be released.

The Fed statement and press conference contained few surprises. The Fed made no change in the federal funds rate, and little new information was provided about the timing of the next rate hike. However, the projections from Fed officials for the path of rate hikes in coming years showed a significantly slower pace than the last set of projections made three months ago. This slower expected timeline for tighter monetary policy was positive for MBS.

Market Update 6/15/2016

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.31), around 2/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Some unfavorable repricing was seen yesterday.

It has been a quiet morning ahead of today’s Fed meeting. The Dow is up 50 points. No more economic data will be released today. The Fed statement will be released around 2:00 et. Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference will begin around 2:30 et. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be looking for hints about the timing of future policy changes.

Today’s economic data caused little reaction. May Industrial Production fell 0.4% from April, below the consensus for a decline of just 0.2%. Weakness was seen in auto production. May PPI inflation was slightly higher than expected. The Empire State regional manufacturing index rose to 6.0, well above the consensus of -4.0

Market Update 6/14/2016

MBS are down -2/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.29), around 3/32 below morning levels, and near the low for the day. Some unfavorable repricing was seen. Some volatility took place today ahead oftomorrow’s Fed meeting and the upcoming British vote on exiting on June 23. The Dow is down 60 points. Tomorrow, the Fed statement will be released around 2:00 et. Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference will begin around 2:30 et. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be looking for hints about the timing of future policy changes. Before the meeting, PPI, Empire State, and Industrial Production will be released.

Market Update 6/10/2016

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.26), around 2/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

A decline in stocks has helped MBS this morning. The Dow is down 100 points.

The monthly rollover took place overnight for FNMA and FHLMC 30-yr securities. The current coupon switched from the June to the July contract. If you are tracking daily MBS price movements, July MBS prices reflected a drop of about -8/32 from June. This change is priced in over the course of the month, so the impact on mortgage rates on the day of the rollover is generally no greater than on any other day of the month.

Market Update 6/9/2016

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.02), around 7/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 264K, below the consensus of 270K. The Dow is down 50 points. No more economic data will be released today. The results from the 30-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

 

 

 

 

 

Fed News

MBS are down -4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 102.25), close to morning levels. No economic data was released today. A speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen caused little reaction. Less than two weeks ago, Yellen said that the Fed likely would raise the federal funds rate in the “coming months.” Today, Yellen dropped any reference to a time frame for the next rate hike. Friday’s disappointing Employment report was one reason for the change. The Dow is up 110 points. Tomorrow, JOLTS will be released at 10:00 et. The results from the 3-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.