Archive | August 2016

Market Update 8/31/2016

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.23), around 1/32 lower than yesterday at this time.

This morning, the ADP estimate for private sector job gains in August was 177K, which was very close to expectations. The Chicago PMI regional manufacturing index declined to 51.5, well below the consensus of of 55.0, and the lowest level since May 2015. The Dow is down 25 points. Pending Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et.

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GOOD DAY 8/29/2016

MBS are up +8/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.24), around 6/32 above morning levels, and near the high for the day. Favorable repricing took place. On Friday, investors grew more concerned about a Fed rate hike, but today those fears were reversed, and MBS recovered Friday’s losses. There was little news today to explain the change in sentiment about future Fed policy. The Dow is up 100 points.Tomorrow, Consumer Confidence will be released at 10:00 et.

Market Update 8/29/2016

MBS are up +4/32, around 2/32 above morning levels.

Please join us at 1:00 et for Blogtalkradio to hear Toni Moss, President of AmeriCatalyst/EuroCatalyst, discuss how she believes Brexit is the beginning of the end of globalization. She will discuss the effect this will have on housing.

 

Market update 8/25/2016

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.23), a little above morning levels. It was another quiet session as investors continue waiting for Yellen’s speech tomorrow. Demand was weaker than average for the 7-yr Treasury auction. The Dow is down 30 points. Tomorrow, the second estimate of second quarter GDP and Consumer Sentiment will be released. More significantly, Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking at Jackson Hole at 11:00 et. Investors will be looking for additional guidance about future Fed policy.

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates were flat in the week through August 25, with 30-yrs hitting 3.43%, from 3.43% the prior week.

Market Update 8/23/2016

MBS are down -1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.21), around 1/32 lower than yesterday at this time.

It has been a quiet morning ahead of today’s housing data. The Dow is up 100 points. New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et. The results from the 2-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

Market Update 08/22/2016

MBS are up +4/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.20), around 1/32 lower than Friday at this time. Unfavorable repricing took place Friday.

A decline in stocks has lifted MBS this morning. The Dow is down 75 points. No economic data will be released today.

Market Update 8/18/2016

MBS are down -1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.22), around 5/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Some favorable repricing was seen yesterday.

This morning, the Philly Fed regional manufacturing index rose to 2.0, matching the consensus. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 262K, slightly below the consensus of 265K. The Dow is down 10 points. Leading Indicators will be released at 10:00 et.

Market Update 8/17/2016

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.17), around 2/32 lower than yesterday at this time.  Unfavorable repricing was seen yesterday.

It has been a quiet morning. The Dow is down 50 points. The minutes from the July 24 Fed meeting will come out at 2:00 et. These detailed minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and have the potential to significantly move markets.

Market Update 8/16/2016

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.19), around 3/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher levels.

It has been a volatile morning, and MBS prices were higher early in the session. Unexpected comments from the Fed’s Dudley were the main influence. Stronger than expected Industrial Production data (see below) also hurt MBS. Dudley suggested that a Fed rate hike may take place sooner than investors expect. He said that “we are edging closer” to the appropriate time for a rate hike and that “it’s possible” that it could happen at the September meeting. MBS prices declined after his hawkish comments. The Dow is down 50 points. No more economic data will be released today.

July Industrial Production rose 0.7% from June, above the consensus of 0.3%. July Housing Starts rose 2% to an annual rate of 1,211K, above the consensus of 1,180K. July CPI was flat from June, matching the consensus. CPI was 0.8% higher than a year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%  from June, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was 2.2% higher than a year ago.

MArket Update 8/11/2016

MBS are down -1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.26), around 2/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Some favorable repricing took place yesterday.

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 266K, which was very close to expectations. July Import Prices rose 0.1% from June. The Dow is up 75 points. No more economic data will be released today. The results from the 30-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.