Market Update 8/16/2016
MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.19), around 3/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher levels.
It has been a volatile morning, and MBS prices were higher early in the session. Unexpected comments from the Fed’s Dudley were the main influence. Stronger than expected Industrial Production data (see below) also hurt MBS. Dudley suggested that a Fed rate hike may take place sooner than investors expect. He said that “we are edging closer” to the appropriate time for a rate hike and that “it’s possible” that it could happen at the September meeting. MBS prices declined after his hawkish comments. The Dow is down 50 points. No more economic data will be released today.
July Industrial Production rose 0.7% from June, above the consensus of 0.3%. July Housing Starts rose 2% to an annual rate of 1,211K, above the consensus of 1,180K. July CPI was flat from June, matching the consensus. CPI was 0.8% higher than a year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% from June, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was 2.2% higher than a year ago.