Archive | March 2017

3/23/2017 MARKET UPDATE

MBS are up +1/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 102.07), around 1/32 higher than yesterday at this time.

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims rose to 258K, above the consensus of 245K. The Dow is down 10 points. New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et. Investors will be more focused on the vote on health care reform which will take place later today at a time which has not yet been announced.

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Market Update 3/21/2017

MBS are up +8/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 102.03), around 9/32 above morning levels, and near the high for the day. Favorable repricing took place. Concerns about whether President Trump will be able to pass business-friendly policy changes as quickly as hoped caused MBS to rally and stocks to decline today. No economic data was released. The Dow is down 240 points, the largest one-day loss of the year. Tomorrow, Existing Home Sales will be released at 10:00 et.

Fed Meeting Day 3/15/2017

MBS are up +3/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 101.00), around 5/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Some favorable repricing took place yesterday.

Today’s important economic data (see below) contained few surprises and had little impact ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon. The Dow is up 50 points. No more economic data will be released today. The Fed meeting statement will be released at 2:00 et. Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference will begin at 2:30 et. The results of the Dutch election could influence U.S. markets, but the outcome likely won’t be known until after U.S. markets close today.

This morning, February Retail Sales rose 0.1% from January, matching the consensus. Excluding the volatile auto component, Retail Sales rose 0.2%, also matching the consensus. However, the results for January for both readings were revised higher. February CPI increased 0.1% from January, matching the consensus. CPI was 2.7% higher than a year ago, up from 2.5% last month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%  from January, also matching the consensus. Core CPI was 2.2% higher than a year ago, down from 2.3% last month. The NY Empire state regional manufacturing index fell to 16.4, which was a little higher than expected.

oUCH 3/1/2017

MBS are down -13/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.5 at 101.28), around 18/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Unfavorable repricing took place late yesterday.

MBS markets have been hit on many fronts since late yesterday. Comments from the Fed’s Dudley and other officials caused investors to sharply increase their expectations for a rate hike at the next meeting on March 15. Trump’s speech last night increased concerns that policy changes will be inflationary. Finally, German inflation data rose to the highest level in four years. In the U.S., the core PCE price index matched expectations with an annual increase of 1.7%, the same as last month. The Dow is up 200 points. ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released at 10:00 et. The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2:00 et.